Wednesday 25 August 2010

Mathshammer Week - Part 2 - Crushing Claws.


So I got slightly distracted by my new Imperial Guard list idea, but I suppose I better finish off posting some of the Tyranid Mathshammer I threatened you with earlier in the week ;-)

So Crushing Claws cost 25 points and grant you an extra D3 attacks from your Carnifex at an Initiative of 1.

As a Carnifex is cursed with WS 3 it can occasionally have issues doing enough damage to a unit to avoid being tarpitted. With 4 attacks base that's only an average of 2 hits per assault phase which isn't going to chew through even a small unit particularly quickly. If that target unit has an invulnerable save of some description then the problem is exaggerated even more.

This problem is somewhat mitigated by it's 2 sets of Scything Talons which grant it a re-roll to hit in assault. However, this bonus is reduced to re-rolling 1's to hit if we only have a single set.

So the question is...do the extra D3 attacks granted by Crushing Claws make up for the reduced re-rolls to hit?

Often averages don't tell us the whole story. The average number of extra attacks is going to be 2, however there is always the potential of either 1 or 3 so we better look at the numbers for all the possibilities.

Lets take a completely un-upgraded Carnifex. The Characteristics we're interested in are WS 3, S9 and 2 sets of Scything Talons.

We'll take the worst case first and let it be charged and presume the charging unit doesn't kill it before it gets a chance to hit back * and that the target unit has no invulnerable saves.

* It's death is a very real possibility by the way...A WS3, T6, 4W and a 3+ armour save MC can be killed by a number of dedicated Assault units.

Charged Carnifex c/w 2 sets of Scything Talons.
4 attacks, 2 hits (+1 from the reroll) so 3 hits in total, 2.5 Dead whatevers.

Charged Carnifex c/w 1 set of Scything Talons + Crushing Claws.
A re-roll on 1's gives us a 0.167 chance of getting a re-roll per attack reduced by 50% to 0.084 (we've still got to hit with it the second time around and for the most part that will be on 4's)

+1 Attacks : 5 attacks, 2.5 hit (+0.42 from re-rolls), 2.92 hits, 2.43 dead.
+2 Attacks : 6 attacks, 3 Hit (+0.5 from re-rolls), 3.5 Hits, 2.92 dead.
+3 Attacks : 7 attacks, 3.5 Hit (+0.58 from re-rolls), 4.08 Hits, 3.4 dead.

So rounding to the nearest whole number our Crushing Claws made Fuck all difference. Even taking the fractions into account the best case scenario of 3 extra attacks didn't account for a whole extra model dead.

Maybe charging will turn out better?

Charging Carnifex c/w 2 sets of Scything Talons.
5 attacks, 2.5 hits (+1.25 from the reroll) so 3.75 hits in total, 3.125 Dead whatevers.

Charging Carnifex c/w 1 set of Scything Talons + Crushing Claws.
A re-roll on 1's gives us a 0.167 chance of getting a re-roll per attack reduced by 50% to 0.084 (we've still got to hit with it the second time around and for the most part that will be on 4's)

+1 Attacks : 6 attacks, 3 Hit (+0.5 from re-rolls), 3.5 Hits, 2.92 dead.
+2 Attacks : 7 attacks, 3.5 Hit (+0.58 from re-rolls), 4.08 Hits, 3.4 dead.
+3 Attacks : 8 attacks, 4 Hit (+0.67 from re-rolls), 4.67 Hits, 3.89 dead.

So rounding to the nearest whole number only our best case scenario (+3 attacks) gives us any benefit and when taking the fractions into account still doesn't add up to a whole extra model dead.

As one of the most expensive upgrades for the Carnifex (only a Heavy Venom Cannon or Regeneration clock-in at the same points) I'd really expect a more significant advantage from this biomorph.

Another factor that needs to be noted is that even with the 'Living Battering Ram' rule making you I3 on the charge, Crushing Claw attacks are still at an initiative of 1 so there's a chance that your 'extra' attacks will be useless if your opponent can kill you before that initiative step.

Some of you may still be under the impression that the Carnifex is unlikely to die in assault before it gets a chance to attack. However think about it this way, If someone is actually attacking your Carnifex there is always the possibility that they're either tying it up because they have the numbers (Orks, Imperial Guard) and don't care if they kill it or they have a unit that they think can take it out...


Oh and in case you missed my conclusion when I wandered of the point a little...Crushing claws aren't worth taking, but unfortunately (imo) neither is the Carnifex that can take them...that subject however needs a blog post all of it's own...

17 comments:

  1. Seems like a goodly portion of the Nids force chart is devoted to things that should really be cool, but just don't work out that way.

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  2. @ CounterFett - Unfortunately that's true. The Carnifex is about 40 points over-pointed imo.

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  3. Carnifex's are quite bad this edition. There only value is using them in broods of two or three. Otherwise you might as well take the Trygon and have those two extra wounds, better weapon skill and fleet (the lost strength is rarely of value).

    As for Crushing Claws, they can help Tervigions who do not start with Talons.

    I did some maths on Heavy Support units. The number of Hits (not Wounds) when Charging WS 4 Infantry. Claws assumes +2 Attacks to keep it simple.
    Carnifex with .. .0 . . . . . .1 . . . . . .2 . . . . . 3 . . . . .4 . . . . . .5 . . . . .6 . . . . .7
    Dakkafex . . . . 03.13% . 15.63% . 31.25% . 31.25% . 15.63% . 03.13% . 00.00% . 00.00%
    Screamer-Killer 00.10% . 01.46% . 08.79% . 26.37% . 39.55% . 23.73% . 00.00% . 00.00%
    Gun/Talon . . . .01.26% . 08.79% . 24.62% . 34.46% . 24.12% . 06.75% . 00.00% . 00.00%
    Claws/Gun . . . 00.78% . 05.47% . 16.41% . 27.34% . 27.34% . 16.41% . 05.47% . 00.78%
    Claw/Talon . . .00.22% . 02.14% . 08.97% . 20.94% . 29.30% . 24.63% . 11.49% . 02.30%
    Trygon . . . . . 00.00% . 00.00% . 00.03% . 00.37% . 03.00% . 14.39% . 38.37% . 43.85%

    Screamer-Killer is getting 4+ hits 63.28% of the time.
    Claw-fex . . . . is getting 4+ hits 50.00% of the time, 6+ hits 06.25% of the time.
    Trygon . . . . . is getting 4+ hits 99.60% of the time, 6+ hits 82.21% of the time.

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  4. @ lyracian - Nice bit of Mathshammer :-)

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  5. Nice numbers....

    But as the conclusion is reached carnifex's really are only good for converting into tyrannofex and tervigons.

    Off subject good job with the blogging Gmort :D

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  6. @ A.D. - I'm debating doing a 'why Carnifex's suck now' post, but I'm not sure how interesting a post that basically says 'here's every viable Carnifex build but don't bother because units X,Y and Z are better' would be to people. If anybody IS interested then they can let me know and I'll do it at some point.

    I have another 3 Tyranid Related Mathshammer posts to do first though. I also have a couple of 'Comparison' posts planned inspired by Mike and Dave respectively.

    Oh, and thanks for the compliment. If you (or anybody else) has any suggestions for improvement with the blog E-Mail me and I'll see what I can do ;-)

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  7. I do not think you need an article telling people how the work horse of 4th Edition got put out to pasture by 5th (or maybe sent to the glue factory).

    At least they are better than Pyrovores and Rippers! :o)

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  8. @ lyracian - don't get me started on Pyrovores I've already had a debate about that in the comments section of an earlier post.

    This one to be exact...

    http://gmortschaotica.blogspot.com/2010/06/tyranids_28.html?showComment=1277833980154#c1191678875020998614

    Rippers are probably more useless than Pyrovores, but it's pretty close, lol.

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  9. I actually rated Rippers higher (2 out of 5) than the Pyrovore (1/5). I can see uses for Rippers as a deep striking tar pit unit or with Venonthropes. Pyrovores are just an inept suicide unit.

    Not that I have used either this edition since there is always a better unit to spend the points on. :o)

    I do eventually want to get some of the Forge World Rippers so I may be biased.

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  10. Improvements to the blog.....

    Give me money :)

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  11. You can't have a pirate ninja that was already a debate.

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  12. No, I'd be interested in hearing your opinions on why you don't rate carnifexes. I run two broods of two in my 1750 list and they work very nicely tbh.

    I think the problem is that people still look at fexes wanting them to be the epic stomp-around-and-splat-anything unit of 15 years ago. If you can get out of that mentality and stick to using them for what they're good at - 2nd wave countercharge vs heavy infantry & vehicles.

    That and the psychological impact. Put a few fexes on the table and you immediately get an opponent nervous!

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  13. So that's one vote against an article on Fex's and one vote for an article on Fex's :-)

    I need a deciding vote, lol.

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  14. @ A.D. - Thanks for the deciding vote. I didn't really want to bother anyway.

    On a brighter note my Tyranids wiped out a Chaos Space Marine army today, lol.

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  15. Way to go Tyranids. I crushed Ultramarines with mine yesterday. :o)

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